DOGE Momentum Turns Bearish After Five Straight Lower Weekly Closes Since October

Three Things to Know

• German buyers from November 2025 are losing the chance to book their Dogecoin losses for tax purposes.
• A death cross and a steady run of lower weekly closes keep sellers in charge of the trend.
• The August floor has already cracked, and little support shows up until much lower.

Dogecoin slipped to its lowest level since August as a German tax deadline put fresh pressure on last year's buyers. Many of last November's buyers must sell now if they want their losses to count.

That timing lands on a chart already leaning lower, with momentum and sentiment both weak. Traders now want to know whether the August floor can hold, or whether tax selling pushes DOGE into a thin zone below it.

November 2025 Buyers Face a 58 Percent Loss as the Tax Window Shuts

German Dogecoin holders who entered last November are running out of time. Under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act (EStG), crypto losses only count for tax purposes if the coins are sold within one year of purchase. Coins bought in November 2025 begin dropping out of that window on Monday, Nov 9, 2026.

The losses are steep. DOGE traded near €0.1523 on Nov 9, 2025 and around €0.1569 two days later. Buyers from that stretch now sit on roughly 58% losses. Even a purchase on Dec 31, 2025 is down about 39%.

That deadline can add selling pressure. Holders who want the loss on paper must sell before their personal one-year mark passes.

Thursday brought the sharpest move of the week. DOGE fell from about $0.0770 to $0.0711 as volume climbed to around $721 million. Sunday was far quieter, with roughly $244 million changing hands.

Five Lower Weekly Closes Leave DOGE Far Beneath Both Averages

Dogecoin (DOGE) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

Dogecoin has closed lower every week since early October. The weekly close stood near $0.0958 on Oct 4, then slipped to about $0.0867 on Oct 11. It fell again to around $0.0794 on Oct 18 and $0.0768 on Oct 25.

The Nov 1 close came in near $0.0755. With DOGE now trading around $0.069, this week is on track for a fifth lower close in a row. Each rebound attempt has ended below the prior week's level.

Price now hovers near the Aug 16 weekly close of about $0.0695. Buyers defended that zone once before, so this is a real test of their resolve.

Moving averages look weak as well. The 50-day average, which tracks the recent trend, sits near $0.080. The 200-day average, a gauge of the longer trend, is higher at about $0.089. DOGE trades well below both, so each one acts as a ceiling on any bounce.

On Oct 29, the 50-day line crossed under the 200-day, a pattern traders call a death cross. It signals that short-term weakness has spread into the longer trend.

Recent losses have also been sharp. DOGE dropped about 9% over the past week and roughly 20% over 30 days. Bitcoin fell about 8.4% over the same month. Dogecoin lost more than twice as much, a sign that sellers are hitting riskier coins first.

Sellers Still Hold the Momentum Edge

Momentum gauges point the same way as the price. The daily RSI, a 0 to 100 measure of buying and selling pressure, sits near 31. That reading is weak but still just above the oversold line. Sellers have room to push further before the indicator flags a stretched market that often precedes a bounce.

The MACD tells a similar story. It remains below its signal line, so downside momentum is still building.

Trend strength readings confirm a real downtrend led by sellers. That makes quick reversals less likely, since established trends tend to persist until buyers show up in force.

Sentiment adds to the defensive tone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 25 on Saturday, deep in extreme fear. It edged up to 28 on Sunday, a slight easing that still leaves traders cautious.

Where DOGE Could Find a Floor

Overhead, the first barrier sits near $0.073. DOGE broke down through that area this week, and old floors often turn into ceilings. A daily close back above it would be the first sign that sellers are tiring.

Above that, resistance waits around $0.076. That level lines up with last week's close. A weekly finish over it would snap the losing streak and give buyers a real foothold.

Below, the picture is thinner. The August low has already given way, and price now trades under it. On the daily chart, the next mapped support sits at about $0.056.

Nothing solid shows up between those two levels, so continued selling would meet little resistance on the way down.

A Close Above $0.073 or a Slide Toward $0.056

Two paths stand out, and this week's finish will likely decide between them.

• Bullish: A daily close back above the first barrier would put the second resistance level, near last week's close, within reach. A drop back under the August floor would cancel that setup.
• Bearish: Another rejection at the first barrier, with price stuck under the August low, would leave the lower support zone exposed. A close above the second resistance would invalidate that view and break the weekly losing streak.

Bears Keep Control Until the Weekly Streak Breaks

For now, Dogecoin's trend belongs to the sellers. One green week would change the tone more than any single daily bounce.

Short-term risk cuts both ways. Tax-driven selling from German holders and extreme fear can trigger sudden drops. They can also spark sharp relief rallies once that pressure clears.