If Bitcoin Loses Its Key Support, Bitwise's Bullish Report Faces a Real Test

Three Things to Know

• Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin target, saying it is more bullish than a year ago.
• Bitcoin is stuck at its 50-day average, and momentum still leans slightly lower.
• The floor at the 200-day average is the line bulls must defend.

Bitwise has published a more aggressive long-term Bitcoin forecast. The asset manager's new capital market report argues that the past year strengthened the case for BTC as a global store of value.

The timing is awkward for bulls. Bitcoin has cooled after its autumn run and now trades sideways with fading momentum. Traders face a simple question. Will buyers defend the long-term trend line, or will a break lower put the bullish outlook under short-term pressure?

Bitwise Lifts Its 2036 Bitcoin Target to $1.6 Million

Crypto asset manager Bitwise raised its long-term Bitcoin forecast to $1.6 million by 2036. Its previous target stood at $1.3 million. The new figure comes from the firm's 2027 "Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report, released Oct 28. It implies a compound annual growth rate of about 34% over the next decade.

The bull case rests on two assumptions. Bitwise expects Bitcoin to capture 25% of the global store-of-value market by 2036. It also sees BTC taking 1% of institutional investment assets. The bear case lands at $130,686, with Bitcoin holding only 2.5% of the store-of-value market.

"We are more bullish on Bitcoin today than we were last year," CIO Matt Hougan said. He added that the past 12 months point to Bitcoin's continued long-term success. Hougan also noted that 20.1 million BTC already circulates, or 95.7% of the 21 million cap.

The report lands as analysts debate whether the June low near $58,000 ended the latest crypto winter. Bitcoin has gained roughly 40% since August.

Bitcoin Stalls Right at Its 50-Day Line

Bitcoin (BTC) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin traded near $81,000 on Thursday, flat over the past 24 hours. BTC is hovering just below its 50-day moving average, which tracks the average closing price of the last 50 days.

This matters because the 50-day average often acts as a ceiling when price slips under it. Buyers pushed hard through the autumn, but the short-term trend has now flattened. Bitcoin needs a clean close above the line to show that the rally still has fuel.

The longer view looks healthier. The 200-day average, a slower gauge of the broader trend, sits near $76,000. Bitcoin trades comfortably above it, so the long-term uptrend remains intact for now.

Recent returns tell a softer story. BTC fell about 4% over the past week and roughly 3% over the past month. Those losses are modest, but they show momentum fading after the strong run from the summer lows.

Bitwise's upbeat forecast has not moved the market much so far. Traders appear focused on the next few sessions, where the 50-day line is the first hurdle.

Sellers Still Hold a Slight Edge

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits at 46 on the daily chart. That neutral reading shows Bitcoin is neither overheated nor oversold.

The slight tilt comes from another momentum tool. The MACD, which compares short and longer price averages, remains below its signal line. In plain terms, momentum is still pointing down, even if the selling has been mild.

Trend strength adds a final clue. The market shows no strong trend right now, with neither buyers nor sellers in firm control. That setup usually favors sideways trading inside a range over a sharp breakout.

Sellers hold a small edge, but they lack the force to push price lower in a hurry. A clear move likely needs a fresh catalyst.

Why $76K Is the Floor That Matters

The nearest support sits at the same spot as the 200-day average. That overlap makes it the most important line on the chart, and buyers have a strong reason to defend it.

A daily close below that floor would change the picture. It would put Bitcoin under its long-term trend gauge for the first time in months. The next support waits near $65K, which would mean a deeper reset and a much larger pullback.

Resistance is close by. The first ceiling sits near $82K, just above the 50-day line. Bounces have stalled there, and sellers are likely to step in again on any approach.

Clearing that level would give bulls a clear win. The next target would be near $85K. A move there would revive the autumn rally.

Two Paths for the Next Three Days

Both setups depend on which nearby level breaks first.

• Bullish: A close above the first ceiling would open the way to the next resistance overhead. That would signal that buyers have regained control. The scenario fails if Bitcoin drops back under its 50-day line.
• Bearish: A break below the floor shared with the 200-day average would point toward the deeper support. That would mean a larger reset of the autumn rally. This view fails if price reclaims the first ceiling.

Long-Term Optimism Meets a Short-Term Test

Bitwise's decade-long thesis does not hinge on this week's price action. Its demand assumptions stay the same whether Bitcoin dips or rallies. Near-term bulls still need that shared floor with the 200-day average to hold.

The risk sits in the fading momentum. If sellers press their small edge, a quiet range could turn into a deeper pullback, whatever the long-term forecast says.