SOL Finishes Alpenglow Upgrade Despite a 28% Slide From Its October High

Quick Take

• Solana completed its Alpenglow consensus upgrade, yet funds tracking the token kept bleeding money for another week.
• Momentum gauges still favor sellers, with RSI sitting just above oversold territory.
• Traders are watching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $84 as the first real test for buyers.

Solana finished Alpenglow, the biggest rewrite of its consensus design since launch. The market barely noticed, and SOL kept sliding to its weakest level since late August.

The timing stings. ETF holders keep redeeming and stakers are unlocking coins, so traders wonder whether steady selling still has room to run.

ETF Outflows Overshadow Solana's Biggest Consensus Overhaul

The upgrade replaced TowerBFT and Proof of History with a new voting system called Votor. Developers are targeting finality of about 150 milliseconds, which would let transactions settle almost instantly.

Investors have yet to reward the change. Solana ETFs lost $26.2 million this week, data from SoSoValue shows. That marks a fifth straight week of outflows, with more than $163 million gone over the stretch.

Friday's selling came from three funds. The Bitwise Solana ETF shed $14 million, while Grayscale's GSOL lost $5.4 million. Morgan Stanley's MSOL saw $4.3 million leave.

The products still hold about $1.31 billion in assets. Net inflows since launch stand near $1.4 billion, so early demand has not fully reversed.

On-chain data points the same way. The staking ratio slipped to about 68% from 70% last month. Staked SOL fell to 434 million from 440 million. Holders appear to be unlocking supply they could sell.

The wider market offers little help. Bitcoin dropped to $74,766, about 14% below its October high, and sentiment gauges sit in fear.

A Bear Market Below Both Moving Averages

Solana (SOL) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

SOL trades near $89 today, down from about $125 at its October high. That slide of roughly 28% puts the token in a technical bear market, which traders define as a fall of 20% or more from a peak. Price now sits at its lowest level since late August.

The moving averages tell the same story. The 50-day average, which tracks about ten weeks of closing prices, sits near $101. The 200-day average, a longer gauge of trend, stands around $98. SOL trades below both, so each line now acts as a ceiling rather than a floor.

Normally, a 50-day line above the 200-day signals strength. Here it only adds a second layer of overhead resistance, since price has fallen through both. Any bounce would have to clear the high $90s first, then push toward $101.

Speed matters too. SOL lost about 19% over the past 30 days and about 7% over the past week. The last 24 hours were flat. That pattern points to steady selling spread across weeks, with no single crash day to blame.

Analysts call this kind of grind distribution. Larger holders trim positions gradually, and buyers fail to absorb the supply. It fits the ETF redemptions and the drop in staked SOL described earlier. A slow bleed suggests the selling pressure may not be exhausted yet.

Sellers Still Lead as RSI Nears Oversold

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits at 31 on the daily chart. Readings below 30 count as oversold, so SOL is close to that zone. Sellers have pushed hard enough that a short relief bounce would not be a surprise.

An oversold reading does not mark a bottom. In strong downtrends, RSI can stay pinned near the low end for days or weeks while price keeps sliding. Traders who buy only because the gauge looks stretched often get caught early.

Other momentum signals offer no comfort. MACD, which compares short and longer price trends, remains below its signal line, meaning momentum is still pointing down. Trend strength readings confirm sellers lead the move.

Where the Next Floor Sits After $92.38 Gave Way

SOL broke below its 50% Fibonacci retracement near $92 this week. Fibonacci levels are ratios traders draw across a prior move to map likely turning points. That line held as support for weeks, and it now becomes the first hurdle for any rebound.

Resistance sits just above, around $97.60. A bounce would need to clear both levels in quick succession to show buyers have returned.

On the downside, the 61.8% retracement is the first cushion. Many traders watch this ratio closely, so some dip buying could appear there. A break would expose support near $78, the nearest floor on the daily chart.

Below that, the next support sits around $72. It lines up closely with the 78.6% retracement near $74, which makes the zone a stronger area of demand.

Bulls face a tall order. SOL would need to reclaim about $104 to undo the bear structure and turn the trend back in their favor.

Two Paths for SOL Over the Next Three Days

SOL's next three days likely hinge on two nearby Fibonacci lines.

• Bullish: A daily close back above the broken retracement line would show buyers stepping in. That opens a test of resistance at $97.59. The setup fails if price slips below the first Fibonacci cushion underneath.
• Bearish: A break of that lower cushion would hand sellers the next leg toward $77.84. A daily close above that resistance would cancel this view.

Upgrade Done, Demand Still Missing

Alpenglow gave Solana a faster consensus engine, and the market has not priced that in yet. Until ETF redemptions stop and fresh money returns, the chart stays tilted toward sellers.

Short sellers face their own risk. Oversold tokens can jump on sudden squeezes that wipe out crowded bets in hours. Traders on either side should keep position sizes small.