Solana Price Pullback Likely to Trigger Bearish Breakdown Toward $80 as Bounce Stalls

Three Things to Know

• Solana has posted the weakest return among the four largest majors since the start of October.
• SOL now trades under both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with sellers steering the trend.
• A daily close below the floor just under the Nov 2 low could open the door to the high $70s.

Solana has fallen behind Bitcoin, Ether and XRP over the past five weeks. Its rebound since late October has been the softest of the group, and fresh buyers have yet to show up.

That weakness leaves SOL exposed if the broader market turns lower again. Bitcoin is still testing its own recent lows. Traders now want to know whether Solana's November floor can hold, or whether the stalled bounce gives way to another leg down.

Solana Lags the Majors Since October

An investor who split $1,000 evenly across Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and Solana on Oct 1 now holds about $887. That basket is down roughly 11%, and Solana did the most damage.

SOL closed near $118 on Oct 1. A $250 stake in the token has shrunk to about $204, a loss of roughly $46. Holders now need a gain of about 23% just to get back to even.

Looked at alone, a full stake in SOL is now worth around $815. The same amount in Bitcoin sits near $948.

Recent gains have done little to repair this since the Oct 31 close. Ether climbed about 8% and XRP added close to 6%. Bitcoin gained about 4%, while SOL managed only around 1%, the weakest bounce of the four.

Bitcoin remains the main risk. A daily close below its Nov 2 low near $76,700 could extend the selloff, and Solana would likely feel it first.

Both Moving Averages Now Sit Above the Price

Solana (SOL) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

SOL changed hands near $95.85 on Wednesday, flat on the day. That price sits under both of the moving averages traders watch most, which tells you the trend has turned against buyers on more than one time frame.

The 50-day moving average, the average closing price over the last 50 sessions, stands near $103. Price has stayed below it for weeks, so that line now acts as a ceiling. Each rally that reaches it has met sellers.

A bigger change came with the 200-day average, now around $98. SOL has slipped beneath it as well. This longer gauge tracks the broad trend. Losing it suggests the slide has grown beyond a short pullback inside an uptrend.

Price has moved in one direction all month. SOL fell about 21% over 30 days, with much of that slide coming in the latest week. Its best close of the period came on Oct 5, near $121.

From there the token slid to a low near $92 on Nov 2. The bounce off that low has already faded, and price is drifting back toward it.

Longer term, the picture looks worse. SOL trades about 67% below its record near $293, set in January 2025. On the daily chart, there is no sign yet of a base forming, with no series of higher lows and no tight range where buyers have dug in.

Sellers Keep the Upper Hand

The momentum gauges point the same way as the averages. RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits near 37 on the daily chart. That reading shows weak buying interest, though it has not yet reached the oversold zone below 30.

That distance matters for traders hoping for a quick rebound. Oversold readings often bring a reflex bounce as sellers run out of fuel. SOL is not there yet, so the token still has room to fall before that kind of relief arrives.

MACD, a tool that tracks shifts in momentum, also stays below its signal line. In plain terms, downside momentum has not faded.

Trend strength readings show sellers driving a real trend. Until that changes, rallies are likely to meet supply.

Why $89.86 Is the Floor That Matters

Support sits near $89.86, just under the Nov 2 low. Buyers defended that zone once already. A daily close beneath it would show they have stepped aside, and the chart offers little in the way below.

The next support waits near $77.84. A drop there would mean another leg lower of roughly the same size as the October slide.

Bulls have work to do above. The first hurdle is the round number near $100, a level where sellers have capped recent attempts. Reclaiming it would put SOL back over the 200-day line as well.

Resistance near $106 matters more. A move through it would carry price close to the 50-day average. That would end the pullback story and give buyers a real foothold.

Two Paths for the Next Three Days

Everything hinges on which edge of the range gives way first.

• Bullish: A daily close above the round-number ceiling would open a run toward the next resistance, near the 50-day line. A slip back under the 200-day average would cancel that setup.
• Bearish: A close under the floor would put the next support in play. A Bitcoin breakdown would likely speed that drop. A reclaim of the round-number ceiling would invalidate the bearish case.

Bears Hold the Edge Until $100 Breaks

For now, Solana remains the laggard of the group. With price pinned under both averages and sellers steering the trend, the bias points lower until buyers win back the round-number ceiling.

Bitcoin can still change that quickly. SOL tends to move harder than the leader in both directions. A sharp market-wide swing, up or down, could overpower any level on this chart.