XRP Price Prediction: $18M in ETF Outflows Push It Below $1 for the First Time

Three Things to Know

• XRP dipped under $1 overnight after two days of spot ETF redemptions.
• The daily chart shows deeply oversold momentum, yet sellers still control the trend.
• Whale wallets now look like the main buyers standing between XRP and a much deeper slide.

XRP broke through its psychological floor overnight into Friday as US spot ETFs posted two straight days of redemptions. Bitwise and Grayscale products led the exits before flows went quiet.

The drop tests a market already gripped by fear. Large holders keep accumulating, while fund investors have pulled back. Traders now watch whether whale buying can absorb the selling before fresh outflows push the token lower.

ETF Redemptions Drag XRP Through the $1 Floor

XRP slipped overnight into Friday, Nov 13, and touched a low of $0.9998 on exchange price data. It was the token's first trade under that mark in the current cycle. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 20, deep in extreme fear territory.

Fund selling set up the drop. US spot XRP ETFs lost $10.4M on Nov 9. Bitwise accounted for $9.4M of that. Another $7.6M left on Nov 10, almost all of it from Grayscale at $7.2M. Flows then went flat for the next two sessions.

Those exits remain small next to the $1.71B to $1.80B the funds have gathered since launch a year ago. Large holders are also buying. Santiment counts about 343,500 wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP, a record. That count rose by 16,815, or 5.15%, in nine months.

Bitcoin traded near $68,700 on Friday morning, and Ether sat just above $1,920.

XRP Trades Far Beneath Both Long Averages

XRP (XRP) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

XRP traded near $1.03 at last check, down about 1% on the day. The bounce off the overnight low has been modest. Sellers still set the tone on the daily chart.

The bigger picture looks worse. XRP sits well below its 50-day moving average, which tracks the average closing price over roughly the past ten weeks and is now near $1.26. It also trades under the 200-day average, around $1.34. Both lines act as ceilings, and the shorter one sits below the longer one. That stacking marks a clean downtrend.

Over the past 30 days, the token has given up about 25%. The past week did most of that damage, with a drop of about 15%. The slide sped up as the ETF exits hit and has not yet found a firm base.

XRP now sits roughly 72% below its all-time high. That peak was $3.65 on July 17, 2025. Many buyers from the past year are holding losses, and they may sell into any rally.

For the trend to count as repaired, price first has to win back the 50-day average. Until then, bounces look like relief moves inside a falling market.

Sellers Lead, Yet the Selling Looks Exhausted

The daily RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, has dropped to about 22. Readings under 30 count as oversold. In plain terms, the selling has run hard and fast, and stretches like this often come before a relief bounce.

Other gauges still favor the bears. The MACD, which compares short and longer price trends, remains below its signal line. That means momentum is still pointing down. A separate trend-strength gauge shows sellers in charge.

In a strong decline, RSI can stay low for days while price keeps grinding lower. A safer sign would be momentum curling higher, with the MACD crossing back above its signal line. That turn has not happened yet.

Why $1.20 Matters More Than the Round Number

The first real ceiling sits near $1.20. Above that, the next resistance waits around $1.31, just under the 200-day average. Sellers have defended both zones on the way down, so any rally will meet supply there.

Santiment's own recovery target looks more modest. The firm sees room for a move to $1.10 to $1.15 if support holds and wallet growth continues. That range sits below the first resistance, which means even a successful bounce may stall before it tests the chart's main hurdle.

The downside picture is starker. Below that floor, the chart shows little support until about $0.63. A decisive break would open a deep air pocket with few natural buyers along the way.

For now, whale wallets are doing the heavy lifting. Their steady accumulation is the main force holding XRP above that line.

Two Paths From the $1 Line

The outlook now splits into two setups.

• Bullish: If XRP holds the floor and the oversold reading sparks a bounce, the first target is the nearest resistance. A daily close above that ceiling would open the next level just under the 200-day average. A daily close back under the floor cancels this view.
• Bearish: Fresh ETF outflows and a daily close under the floor would point toward the deep support zone. A move back above the first resistance would cancel this view.

Whales Hold the Line for Now

Large holders keep adding while the funds have stopped bleeding, and the deeply oversold reading leaves XRP set up for a relief bounce. That bounce would still sit inside a downtrend until price clears the first ceiling. The main risk is a new wave of ETF redemptions. With sentiment this fearful, fresh selling could break support and send XRP sliding fast.