XRP Price Pullback Forecasts a 6% Crash as US Funds Post Their Largest Outflow Since March

Three Things to Know

• US spot XRP funds just posted their heaviest single-day outflow since March, while large on-chain holders kept adding.
• Daily momentum sits deep in oversold territory, yet sellers still control the trend.
• The round $1 mark is the floor that decides whether this pullback deepens or stalls.

Investors pulled money from the funds for two straight days this week. The redemptions hit as the token slid toward its lowest levels in months.

That split matters now because wallets holding large amounts of XRP keep growing. Big holders are buying what the funds are selling. Traders want to know which side runs out of conviction first, and whether the round-number floor survives the test.

US Funds Sell While Shark Wallets Keep Buying

The ETFs lost $10.42 million on Nov 9, according to SoSoValue data. That was the largest single-day outflow since March 9. Redemptions continued the next day, when another $7.62 million left the funds.

On-chain data tells a different story. Santiment counts about 343,500 wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP, a group traders call sharks. That count is up about 5% since Feb 9. The growth came even as XRP lost roughly 30% over seven weeks. Millionaire wallets also hit a yearly high earlier this month.

Leverage has cooled on Binance. Analyst Arab Chain put the exchange's estimated leverage ratio for XRP near 0.14, a three-month low. Analyst Amr Taha said open interest reached $189 million on Nov 11. That is close to its early August level. Less borrowed money means less fuel for forced liquidations, though the risk has not vanished.

Retail traders remain gloomy. Bearish comments outnumber bullish ones about 2 to 1. Santiment reads that fear as a setup that often comes before rebounds.

XRP Trades Far Beneath Both Long Averages

XRP (XRP) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

XRP changed hands near $1.04 on Thursday, flat over the past 24 hours. The token fell about 20% over the past week and about 22% over the past month.

Those losses leave XRP pinned near the bottom of its 30-day range. A flat day after that kind of drop usually signals tired sellers. It does not yet mean buyers have taken control.

A moving average smooths out daily swings by tracking the average closing price over a set period. XRP trades well below its 50-day average near $1.27. It also sits under its 200-day average near $1.34.

Trading below both lines confirms a downtrend led by sellers. Each average now acts as a ceiling, a level where rallies tend to stall as earlier buyers look to exit. XRP would need to gain more than a fifth just to touch the 50-day line.

A daily close back above it would be the first real sign that the trend is starting to repair. Until then, any bounce is a relief rally inside a falling market.

Bulls would need weeks of steady buying to challenge the 200-day line.

Oversold Readings Have Not Stopped the Selling Yet

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits near 23 on the daily chart. Anything below 30 counts as oversold. Readings this low often come before relief bounces, because sellers tend to run out of supply after a sharp drop.

Oversold does not mean finished, though. MACD, which compares a short-term and a longer-term trend in price, remains below its signal line. That means momentum is still pointing down. Trend strength readings also show a real trend, and sellers are the ones driving it.

In strong downtrends, oversold can stay oversold for days or even weeks. Traders who buy only because a gauge looks cheap often get caught early.

The cue to watch is a MACD crossover. If the line climbs back above its signal, the shark accumulation would finally be showing up in price. Until that happens, the funds still set the tone.

$0.99 Is the Last Floor Before Open Air

Support on the daily chart sits near $0.99, just under the round dollar mark that Santiment calls the key level to defend. A slide from the current price to that floor would be the roughly 6% drop that traders fear.

The chart shows no mapped support below that floor, leaving open air if it gives way. Santiment expects a break under the dollar mark, paired with fading wallet growth, to spark a brief selloff. The firm also sees retail panic in that scenario as fuel for a later rebound.

Overhead, the first resistance sits near $1.20. Santiment's rebound target of $1.10 to $1.15 falls short of it. A bounce from here could recover lost ground and still stall below it.

The next barrier waits near $1.31, close to the moving averages above. Sellers would likely defend that zone hard.

Which Way XRP Breaks Over the Next Three Days

The next three days should show whether the shark buying can outlast the fund selling.

• Bullish: XRP holds its floor and closes above the first ceiling. That would open a path toward the second barrier near the moving averages. A close under the floor would cancel this setup.
• Bearish: A close below the floor, paired with stalling wallet growth and more ETF redemptions, would extend the selloff into unmapped ground. A reclaim of the first ceiling would cancel this view.

Dip Buyers Hold the Edge for Now

Shark wallets keep growing while RSI sits deep in oversold territory. That mix gives dip buyers a slight edge, as long as the floor holds.

Sustained ETF redemptions and a trend still led by sellers could overwhelm that buying. A clean break would hand control back to the funds.