Bitcoin Price Prediction: $500M in Long Liquidations Push It Toward $65,000

Quick Take

• A wave of forced selling hit crypto as Bitcoin fell to a three-month low.
• Bitcoin trades below both its 50-day and 200-day averages, and lower highs keep stacking up.
• Support near $63K now stands as the zone that will show whether the liquidation wave is spent.

Bitcoin dropped to its weakest level in three months this week as leveraged bulls were forced out in rapid succession. Steady exits from US spot Bitcoin funds and a jump in Treasury yields added fuel to the slide.

The selloff matters because it hit a market already leaning heavily on borrowed money. Traders now want to know whether the purge has cleared enough leverage for buyers to step in, or whether another leg lower comes first.

Forced Selling Wipes $60 Billion From Crypto in Four Hours

Bitcoin slid to $68,617 this week, its lowest level in three months. The drop started when price broke below $72,000. Each lower break, first $70,000 and then $69,000, forced more leveraged traders out of their positions.

Liquidation data shows how fast it moved. About $175 million in positions were wiped out in 30 minutes as that level gave way. Market trackers put total liquidations above $500 million within one hour, and most of those were longs betting on higher prices.

Fund flows made things harder. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted five straight days of net outflows from Nov 5 to Nov 11, totaling about $1.44 billion. BlackRock's IBIT lost $269.7 million on Nov 11, its ninth straight outflow session.

Macro news made it worse. Hotter October inflation lifted bets on a December Fed hike. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00%. Tech stocks stumbled too. Ether and XRP fell alongside Bitcoin, and about $60 billion left the crypto market in four hours.

Bitcoin Trades Below Both Key Averages After an 18% Monthly Slide

Bitcoin (BTC) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin now trades near $69K, down about 3% over the past day. The weekly loss is steeper at roughly 10%. Over 30 days, the slide reaches about 18%, so this selloff has been building for weeks.

A moving average smooths out daily swings to show the underlying trend. Bitcoin sits below its 50-day average near $78K. It also trades under its 200-day average, which stands around $76K.

Both lines now sit above the price. That makes them ceilings, where rallies tend to stall as sellers step back in. When a coin trades under both averages, traders read it as a downtrend.

Price action backs that up. Since the October record, every bounce has topped out below the one before it. Those lower highs mean buyers keep losing ground at each attempt to push back up.

Over a longer span, the losses look harsh. Bitcoin hit a record of about $126,198 in October. It now trades roughly 46% below that peak, nearly half its value gone in weeks.

Bulls face a clear task before the picture can change. First, they need to win back the round number Bitcoin just lost. Then they must retake the level where this breakdown started. Until both happen, sellers keep control of the range.

Oversold Readings Have Not Stopped the Sellers Yet

Momentum gauges now warn the bears too. RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits at 25 on the daily chart. Any reading below 30 counts as oversold, meaning selling has run hot and fast in a short time.

Oversold conditions often bring relief bounces. Short sellers lock in profits, and bargain hunters test the water.

Other signals still lean against the bulls. The MACD, which tracks shifts in momentum, remains below its signal line, so momentum is still pointing down. Trend strength readings show a real trend, and sellers are leading it.

Any bounce from here would likely be a short pause inside the downtrend. A true turn needs momentum to flip first.

$63K Is Where the Liquidation Cascade Gets Tested

The next real test is support near $63K, just below the $65,000 target. A slide into that area would show whether the forced selling has finally run its course.

Buyers have a reason to defend it. Many of the leveraged longs that fueled the drop are already gone. With less forced selling left, dip buyers may find it easier to hold the line there.

A daily close below that zone would change the picture. The next support waits near $59K, and a break would likely trigger another round of liquidations.

On the upside, resistance sits near $75K, just under the 200-day average. A close above it would cancel the breakdown and push price back into its old range. Beyond that, the next ceiling stands near $80K.

What the Next 72 Hours Could Bring

Two paths stand out for the coming days.

• Bullish: The oversold reading sparks a relief bounce, and Bitcoin reclaims the level where this breakdown began. That would put first resistance, just under the 200-day average, in play as the next target. A daily close back below the round number it just lost would cancel this setup.
• Bearish: Sellers stay in charge, and a daily close under first support opens the way to the next floor. Fresh long liquidations would likely speed that move. A push back above the breakdown level would invalidate this view.

Sellers Keep the Upper Hand for Now

The bias stays bearish while Bitcoin trades under the level where this breakdown began. First support remains the likely next stop, and it lines up with the downside target.

Risks run both ways. Another week of ETF outflows or a hawkish Fed surprise could speed up long liquidations. Oversold readings can also fuel sudden short squeezes that catch late sellers off guard.