XRP's Loss of $1.30 Ahead of the US Midterms Leaves It Eyeing $0.99, What's Next?

Three Things to Know

• XRP enters Tuesday's US midterm vote with prediction markets favoring a Democratic sweep that could stall its regulatory story.
• The chart leans bearish, with price stuck under both major moving averages and momentum still pointing down.
• Bulls need to reclaim the level XRP lost last week, near $1.31, before any recovery case holds.

XRP is drifting into the US midterm elections after losing a key price level last week. Traders now face a vote that could decide the fate of crypto market structure rules in Congress.

The odds currently favor the party less friendly to the bill. One Senate race in Ohio may matter most. Can XRP find buyers before its next real floor comes into view?

Midterm Odds Put XRP's Regulatory Bet on Trial

US voters head to the polls on Tuesday, Nov. 3, to fill all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket gave Democrats a 92% to 94% chance of taking the House as of Oct. 30. Their odds for the Senate stood near 69%.

The crypto industry has spent over $170 million this cycle, mostly through the Fairshake PAC. More than $60 million of that went toward defeating Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio, who faces Republican Jon Husted. Brown has long been a critic of the sector.

Much of that money aims to revive the CLARITY Act. The market structure bill cleared the House 294-134 in July 2025. It then failed in the Senate by a single vote on Sept. 15.

XRP leans on that regulatory story more than most coins. If Democrats win both chambers, as markets expect, XRP would likely be slowest to recover. A Republican hold on both chambers carries under 10% odds, but it would put $1.30 back in play.

For XRP, the Ohio result may move the chart more than overall Senate control. Payrolls data lands Nov. 6, and an MSCI decision on Bitcoin treasury companies follows Nov. 11.

XRP Trades Under Both Averages After a Rough Month

XRP (XRP) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

XRP traded near $1.25 on Monday, unchanged over the past 24 hours. The quiet session suggests traders are holding back before Tuesday's vote.

The broader picture is weaker. XRP has lost about 5% over the past week and roughly 16% over the past month. Sellers have pressed the price lower day after day, without one sharp crash.

That slide has pushed XRP under two closely watched trend gauges. A moving average smooths out daily swings by tracking the average closing price over a set period. The 50-day average sits near $1.34. The 200-day average is slightly higher, near $1.36.

Price below both lines means each now acts as a ceiling. Rallies toward those levels tend to meet selling from traders who bought higher and want out at breakeven. The shorter average has also slipped beneath the longer one, a sign that recent weakness runs deeper than the long-term trend.

The two averages sit only a few cents apart, and that cluster cuts both ways. A single strong move could clear both ceilings at once and flip the setup in favor of buyers. A failed attempt, though, would likely send the price back down quickly, since sellers have defended that zone all month.

Sellers Keep the Upper Hand as Momentum Fades

Momentum readings back up what the price has shown. XRP's daily RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of buying and selling pressure, sits near 37. That reading is weak, but it is still above the oversold zone below 30.

In practice, sellers have room to push further before the coin looks stretched.

The MACD, a tool that compares short and long price trends, remains below its signal line. That means downward momentum has not turned.

Trend strength readings point the same way. A trend is forming, and sellers are leading it. Until that changes, rallies may stay short and fade quickly.

$1.31 Is the Line Bulls Must Reclaim

Nearest resistance sits just above the level XRP lost last week. A daily close back above that mark would undo the breakdown. It would also suggest the drop was a false move.

Clearing it would only be a first step. The next ceiling sits near $1.40, above both moving averages. A move through that zone would confirm a real change in direction.

The downside looks less forgiving. The data shows no nearby floor until support near $0.99. If XRP slips from its current range, little stands in the way of a fast drop. A slide of that size would also push RSI into oversold territory, where bounces tend to start.

Ohio Could Decide Which Way XRP Breaks

Tuesday's two Senate calls set up clear paths for the coin.

• Bullish: A surprise Republican hold or a Husted win in Ohio would revive hopes for market structure rules. A daily close above first resistance would open the way to the higher ceiling over both averages. A slip back below the current range would cancel that setup.
• Bearish: Democratic control of both chambers, with Brown keeping his seat, would weigh hardest on XRP. A break under $1.20 would expose the deeper support floor. A close back above first resistance would invalidate the bearish case.

Politics Now Outweighs the Chart

XRP stays bearish until buyers win back first resistance.

Election night could still bring sharp swings in either direction. Friday's payrolls report adds another trigger for sudden moves. Traders who step in this week may want to keep position sizes small until the results settle.